In medicine, base-rate neglect plays an important role

In medicine, base-rate neglect plays an important role. For example, migraines can point (among others) to a viral infection or a brain tumor. However, viral infections are much more common (in other words, they have a higher base rate), so doctors assess patients for these first before testing for tumors. This is very reasonable.

— from The Flight Plan (Purpose/Wisdom/Risk) · Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli

Also belongs to

• The Instruments (Awareness/Perception/Expectations)
• The Mind in the Cockpit
• Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)

Related

• In order to get the results we desire, we…
• An affordance is a relationship between the properties of…
• Gut feelings are what we experience
• A beneficial degree of ignorance
• Gut feelings are what we experience
• The French cognitive scientists Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber…