an outlier, lies outside the realm of regular expectations…

Keyword random an outlier, lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second that carries an extreme impact. People have a tendency to have blindness with respect to randomness, particularly the large deviations. keyword success the secret recipe to being successful is an idea that is not easily conceived of by the current people in the business. It has to be at some distance from expectations. Therefore you want to tinker as much as possible to try to collect as many black swan opportunities as you can .

— from The Instruments (Awareness/Perception/Expectations)

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