to calculate risk, we must predict the probability that…
Keyword risk to calculate risk, we must predict the probability that the outcome of our behavior will result in either positive or negative consequences and then measure how big an impact those consequences will have.
— from The Flight Plan (Purpose/Wisdom/Risk) · 13 things mentally strong people don’t do written by Amy Moran.
In the book
There are some things that are never worth risking, no matter how large the potential gain; the whole art is to distinguish the daring that serves your destination from the gambling that betrays it. So you calculate — you honestly weigh the probability and the size of what you could lose — and you keep a margin of safety wide enough to absorb roughly twice your worst case. Where the cost of failing is low and recoverable, take the leap freely. — The Flight Plan (Purpose/Wisdom/Risk)