when using simple models, the broken leg principle holds…

Page 129 keyword decisions when using simple models, the broken leg principle holds an important lesson for decision makers. It tells them when to overrule the model and when not to. If you have decisive information that the model could not take into consideration, there is a true broken leg, and you should override the models recommendation. On the other hand you will sometimes disagree with the model's recommendation even if you lacks it private information. In those cases, your temptation to override the model reflects a personal pattern you are applying to the same predictors. Since this personal pattern is highly likely to be invalid, you should refrain from overriding the model.

— from Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences) · Noise by Daniel kahneman

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