In medicine, base-rate neglect plays an important role
In medicine, base-rate neglect plays an important role. For example, migraines can point (among others) to a viral infec-tion or a brain tumor. However, viral infections are much more common (in other words, they have a higher base rate), so doc-tors assess patients for these first before testing for tumors. This is very reasonable.
— from The Mind in the Cockpit · Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli
In the book
There is confirmation bias and belief perseverance — we notice what agrees with us and quietly discard what doesn't, and a belief, once formed, clings on long after the facts have left. There is base-rate neglect, ignoring the plain odds in favor of the vivid story in front of us. There is our reliable overconfidence — humans massively overestimate their ability to predict the future, and almost no one's forecasts are as good as they feel. — The Mind in the Cockpit