Moreover, they find that shipping companies tend to commission…

Moreover, they find that shipping companies tend to commission new ships when net earnings are highest and used ship prices are highest, leading to a phenomenon whereby significant numbers of new ships are delivered 18-36 months after big booms in ship earnings. The shipping companies don't seem to be incorporating the likely influx of new supply from competitors and the predictable effect that will have on prices when they make their orders. These increases in supply tend to bring down ship earnings, meaning that used ships bought at peak prices and new ships commissioned during peak pricing periods both tend to exhibit negative future returns.

— from The Flight Plan (Purpose/Wisdom/Risk) · Humble Investor: How to Find a Winning Edge in a Surprising World by Daniel Rasmussen

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