The Nobel laureate Herbert Simon argued that the same…

The Nobel laureate Herbert Simon argued that the same holds for humans: "A man, viewed as behaving systems, is quite simple The apparent complexity of his behavior over time is largely a reflection of the complexity of the environment in which he finds himself."

— from Takeoff Into Chaos · Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious by Gerd Gigerenzer

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We trust tiny samples as if they were laws, when a handful of tosses is no law at all, whatever we pretend. The Nobel laureate Herbert Simon put the deepest version of it: a human being, seen as a behaving system, is actually rather simple — most of the bewildering complexity of our conduct is just the reflection of the complicated environment we are flying through, the same trap we fall into when we credit an ant with elaborate cunning that proves to be nothing but the shape of the ground it crossed. Even our proudest achievements, examined honestly, owe as much to surprise, coincidence, and plain luck as to any grand design. — Takeoff Into Chaos

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