When you do not have absolute certainty about the…
When you do not have absolute certainty about the facts and the outcome of a decision that you need to make, you should then use probability in making the decision that is most likely to have the best outcome this is called the Bayesian method where you evaluate the probability of something happening or a result happening as a result of your action. As you add more data to the facts that you are evaluating, the likelihood of making a more accurate decision becomes more probable.
— from Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)
In the book
How good is the best case — and how bad is the worst, and could I get back here if it came true? And the one I lean on most: how much will this even matter in five years? When the outcome is truly uncertain, stop pretending you can know it and think in probabilities instead: start from the base rate, the plain odds, and revise as each new fact arrives; hold many possible outcomes in mind, not just the one you hope for; and play each alternative forward in your mind, to its end, before you choose. A few simple habits sharpen all of this. […] Weigh it honestly. Run the costs, benefits, alternatives, and worst case — can I get back here? — and ask whether it will matter in five years. Think in probabilities and simulations when the outcome is uncertain, prefer the simplest solution, and average independent judgments to cut the noise. Get critique, then own it. Lay big decisions before trusted people who hunt for the weaknesses — and then make the call yours. — Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)