What are the worst things that could happen?

What are the worst things that could happen? Can I get back here?

— from Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences) · Tools of Titans

In the book

What are the alternatives? How good is the best case — and how bad is the worst, and could I get back here if it came true? And the one I lean on most: how much will this even matter in five years? When the outcome is truly uncertain, stop pretending you can know it and think in probabilities instead: start from the base rate, the plain odds, and revise as each new fact arrives; hold many possible outcomes in mind, not just the one you hope for; and play each alternative forward in your mind, to its end, before you choose. […] Then ask: must I decide now? If yes, trust your trained gut; if no, gather and wait — but avoid paralysis, and remember that not deciding is itself a decision. Weigh it honestly. Run the costs, benefits, alternatives, and worst case — can I get back here? — and ask whether it will matter in five years. Think in probabilities and simulations when the outcome is uncertain, prefer the simplest solution, and average independent judgments to cut the noise. — Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)

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