the upshot for decision makers, summarized by Herzog and…

Page 85 keyword decision the upshot for decision makers, summarized by Herzog and hartwig, is a simple choice between procedures if you can get independent opinions from others do it - this real wisdom of crowds is highly likely to improve your judgment. If you cannot, make the same judgment yourself a second time to create an inner crowd. You can do this either after some time has passed - giving yourself distance from your first opinion - or by actively trying to argue against yourself to find another perspective on the problem. Finally, regardless of the type of crowd, unless you have a very strong reasons to put more weight on one of the estimates you're, your best bet this day average them.

— from The Flight Plan (Purpose/Wisdom/Risk) · Noise by Daniel kahneman

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