let's take the average of four independent judgments this…

Page 272 keyword decision let's take the average of four independent judgments this is guaranteed to reduce noise by half. We should strive to be in perpetual beta like the super forecasters. Before we discuss the situation, what is the relevant base rate? We have a good team but how can we ensure more diversity of opinions ?

— from Takeoff Into Chaos · Noise by Daniel kahneman

In the book

Distrust your own instruments. In a shaking world the observer is every bit as unreliable as the thing observed, so when you must judge in the fog, cross-check yourself — averaging several independent readings is all but guaranteed to cut the noise roughly in half. Stay in perpetual beta, like the best forecasters, always ready to revise. Build small islands of order. When everything is in flux, deliberately fix a few things in place — even a daily routine performed at the same hour each day will radiate enough stability to steady a great deal of surrounding chaos. — Takeoff Into Chaos

And on the big ones, borrow other minds. One clean defense against your own noise is to average several independent judgments. I learned to rely on myself, but on decisions of real consequence I still lay out my plan and ask trusted people to critique it — best of all in a group where everyone must speak, the hunt is for the proposal's weaknesses, and the criticism is never personal. […] Weigh it honestly. Run the costs, benefits, alternatives, and worst case — can I get back here? — and ask whether it will matter in five years. Think in probabilities and simulations when the outcome is uncertain, prefer the simplest solution, and average independent judgments to cut the noise. Get critique, then own it. Lay big decisions before trusted people who hunt for the weaknesses — and then make the call yours. — Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)

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