They still worked with their intuitions, but now they…
They still worked with their intuitions, but now they knew what to look for, whereas earlier they had looked in the wrong places.
— from The Mind in the Cockpit · Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious by Gerd Gigerenzer
In the book
Freud warned that it is an illusion to expect everything from intuition — and he was half right. The truth is that intuition is only as good as the experience feeding it: the expert's hunch is trustworthy because he has learned, over thousands of repetitions, exactly what to look for, while the novice's hunch is just a guess in a nice suit. This is also why you should flatly distrust your intuition about anything exponential or statistical: on growth rates the gut has nothing useful to say, and the honest move is to admit it and do the arithmetic. — The Mind in the Cockpit