Inductive thinking doesn't have to be a road to…

Inductive thinking doesn't have to be a road to ruin, though. In fact, you can make a fortune with it by sending a few e-mails. Here's how: Put together two stock market forecasts-one pre-dicting that prices will rise next month and one warning of a drop. Send the first mail to fifty thousand people and the sec-ond mail to a different set of fifty thousand. Suppose that after one month, the indices have fallen. Now you can send another e-mail, but this time only to the fifty thousand people who re-ceived a correct prediction. These fifty thousand you divide into two groups: The first half learns that prices will increase next month, and the second half discovers they will fall. Continue doing this. After ten months, around a hundred people will remain, all of whom you have advised impeccably. From their perspective, you are a genius. You have proven that you are truly in possession of prophetic powers. Some of these people will trust you with their money.

— from True North (Ethics, Integrity, Truth, Values) · Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli

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