Probability theory teaches that when you make a prediction…
Probability theory teaches that when you make a prediction You should consider many possible outcomes. Not just one.
— from Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)
In the book
How good is the best case — and how bad is the worst, and could I get back here if it came true? And the one I lean on most: how much will this even matter in five years? When the outcome is truly uncertain, stop pretending you can know it and think in probabilities instead: start from the base rate, the plain odds, and revise as each new fact arrives; hold many possible outcomes in mind, not just the one you hope for; and play each alternative forward in your mind, to its end, before you choose. A few simple habits sharpen all of this. — Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)