Chapter 17

Chapter 17: Inside the Court of the Overconfident - Explores the psychology of overconfidence and how it can lead to errors in judgment and decision-making. Discusses the factors that contribute to overconfidence, such as the illusion of control and the tendency to dismiss negative feedback.

— from Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences) · Thinking Fast and Slow

In the book

And lean, always, toward simplicity — the simplest explanation is usually the best, and if a solution isn't simple it is probably not the right one; assume of others not malice but a plain lack of knowledge, which frees you from blame and gets you to the decision. Guard against the mind's built-in distortions, because they hijack decisions silently: loss aversion, which makes you fear a loss more than you value the equal gain; the framing of the same facts in different lights; and the anchors the first number drops in your head — and beware, above all, overconfidence, with its dismissal of bad news and its illusion of control. Know, too, that no decision is ever made by reason alone; when the facts and the time run out, it is your gut that decides, which is exactly why you must train that intuition with experience until it is worth trusting. — Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)

Also belongs to

Related