Over and over again, we see the same phenomenon

Over and over again, we see the same phenomenon: humans overestimating their ability to predict the future. We consistently err in relying on bad forecasts to make judgments about the future, with the biggest error being our belief we could make accurate forecasts to begin with. We are not humble enough.

— from The Mind in the Cockpit

In the book

There is base-rate neglect, ignoring the plain odds in favor of the vivid story in front of us. There is our reliable overconfidence — humans massively overestimate their ability to predict the future, and almost no one's forecasts are as good as they feel. And there are the cognitive blind spots you cannot see precisely because they are blind spots; the honest move is to admit, up front, that there are things you do not know that you do not know. — The Mind in the Cockpit

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