We can also use simulations to predict what the…

We can also use simulations to predict what the outcome will be of our actions. By running multiple mental simulations in our head for the different alternatives, it also helps us make more accurate decisions

— from Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)

In the book

How good is the best case — and how bad is the worst, and could I get back here if it came true? And the one I lean on most: how much will this even matter in five years? When the outcome is truly uncertain, stop pretending you can know it and think in probabilities instead: start from the base rate, the plain odds, and revise as each new fact arrives; hold many possible outcomes in mind, not just the one you hope for; and play each alternative forward in your mind, to its end, before you choose. A few simple habits sharpen all of this. — Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)

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