there are several approaches for the best way to…
Keyword thinking there are several approaches for the best way to think in different situations. One of them is called a first principles approach which means that you break down the process to it's basic component and a first principle is a basic assumption that cannot be broken down any further. there is another process called inversion where you decide on your goal and figure out what you do not want to happen and what you do want to happen to reach your goal. There's a process called second order thinking which requires you to consider your actions and the consequences of those actions as well as the long-term effects that are going to come up as a result of the choices you make. And then there's the Bayesian method which is basically a theory based on statistics where the probabilities express the level of belief in the occurrence of event so that means that you think of all possible outcomes and scenarios and then you take the most probable one. There is occam razor principle which is a problem solving principal which has you eliminating improbable option and focus on what works. Don't spend time contemplating complex scenarios. There is a principal of focusing on the problem and finding solutions not on finding fault or someone to blame for it.
— from Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences) · Critical Thinking and Mental Models
In the book
Examine your assumptions before you reach a conclusion, because a single buried bad one quietly poisons the whole chain of belief you decide from. Keep a couple of thinking tools on the shelf: break a problem down to its irreducible parts, or ask what you most want to avoid, or trace the consequences of the consequences. And lean, always, toward simplicity — the simplest explanation is usually the best, and if a solution isn't simple it is probably not the right one; assume of others not malice but a plain lack of knowledge, which frees you from blame and gets you to the decision. — Decisions & Choices (Decision/Choice/Focus/Forethought/Consequences)