The tendency to draw conclusions from small amounts of…
The tendency to draw conclusions from small amounts of data is usually referred to as the law of small numbers. We should be careful not to read too much into short-term patterns, as such patterns might be the result of randomness. Outcome bias refers to the tendency to judge a decision by its outcome instead of basing it on the quality of the decision given what was known at that time. The danger here is that we might learn the wrong lessons, which can ad-versely impact our future decisions.
— from The Flight Plan (Purpose/Wisdom/Risk) · Practical Uncertainty: Useful Ideas in Decision-Making, Risk, Randomness, and AI by Hossei