Hossein Pishro-Nik

46 thoughts in this book draw on Hossein Pishro-Nik.

Books & sources

• Practical Uncertainty: Useful Ideas in Decision-Making, Risk, Randomness, and AI · 46 thoughts

The thoughts

• Due to our fundamental uncertainty, we cannot predict the…Failure & Resilience
• First, perceived confidence does not always de-pend on the…Communication & Conflict
• One important thing to remember is that in a…Takeoff Into Chaos
• One interesting point she made is that the best…The Mind in the Cockpit
• The first is that what we may think of…The Heart in the Cockpit
• The first is that what we may think of…The Mind in the Cockpit
• Therefore, the number of infected peo-ple can grow in…Takeoff Into Chaos
• Therefore, the number of infected people can grow in…Takeoff Into Chaos
• This mistake is usually called belief in the "law…Takeoff Into Chaos
• Thus, we can think about entropy in two waysTakeoff Into Chaos
• Thus, we can think about entropy in two waysTakeoff Into Chaos
• We know these clusters of unlucky events simply happen…Takeoff Into Chaos
• We know these clusters of unlucky events simply happen…Takeoff Into Chaos
• Whatever the case, many people have achieved the strength…Failure & Resilience
• When it comes to high-impact events, there is another…Takeoff Into Chaos
• You start with some initial belief, usually called your…Decisions & Choices
• 1Expanding Your Range
• 2Expanding Your Range
• 3Expanding Your Range
• 3Expanding Your Range
• 4Expanding Your Range
• 4Expanding Your Range
• 5Expanding Your Range
• 5Expanding Your Range
• First, like the serial entrepreneur discussed earlier, there is…The Flight Plan
• First, like the serial entrepreneur discussed earlier, there is…The Flight Plan
• Given that there is a nonzero probability that the…The Heart in the Cockpit
• If you do not pay off your credit cards…The Flight Plan
• In general, it would be a mistake to think…The Mind in the Cockpit
• In general, it would be a mistake to think…The Mind in the Cockpit
• INSURANCE, FLEXIBILITY, AND MARGINS Paying attention to the accumulation…The Flight Plan
• INSURANCE, FLEXIBILITY, AND MARGINS Paying attention to the accumulation…The Flight Plan
• One important thing to remember is that in a…The Flight Plan
• One way to think about this is that when…The Flight Plan
• One way to think about this is that when…The Flight Plan
• Persistence could amplify your success probabilityExpanding Your Range
• PERSISTENCE PAYS OFF (WITH HIGH PROBABILITY!Expanding Your Range
• PERSISTENCE PAYS OFF WITH HIGH PROBABILITY!Expanding Your Range
• Ready for the answer?The Flight Plan
• Second, by accepting uncertainty, one can provide a more…The Flight Plan
• THE DAMAGING EFFECT OF LOSSESFailure & Resilience
• THE DAMAGING EFFECT OF LOSSESThe Flight Plan
• The tendency to draw conclusions from small amounts of…The Flight Plan
• The tendency to draw conclusions from small amounts of…The Flight Plan
• When it comes to high-impact events, there is another…The Flight Plan
• Your first success might give you an edge in…Expanding Your Range